It's a Beautiful Day

Nothing quite like a stretch of great weather in Anchorage. Those of you who live here know that. I don't crank up my iTunes as often as I probably ought to but a day like this needs music. It's a doubly-beautiful day. Sunny in the mid-70's and Sarah quits. And luckily for you readers this will probably be the last time I ever rant about the shrill freak here.

Don't bother reading any other analysis about why she is a quitter. I've got the skinny here of course.

Sarah started out as a typical young married housewife. Her husband worked hard on the slope and fishing; and he pulled in some pretty typically decent cash for that sort of thing. Enough to partner up with some buddy and open a snowmachine shop. It was a classic American story; he was gone a lot and she got bored and lonely. So naturally what happens?

She sleeps with his business partner. No doubt when she explained and apologized to Todd that he told her to do something with her life. So she got on the school board or whatever and eventually got to be mayor of Methsilla. I'm sure that impressed her boob of a hubby but it didn't make him stay home any more than he had. So she gets lucky in a divisive three-way governor race and later McCain knew everyone would like her ass as much as he did so he trotted her out and the "celebrity-politician" was born.

See what fucking around on your spouse creates? That's some seriously unintended consequences. The core of her current character (the parts that aren't the invented "pose queen") has been defined by that affair. She is who she is because of it.

I don't really know or care if this twit is done with national politics or not. She's done in Alaska politics. She's deluded if she thinks she can convince anyone other than the people that already are fascinated with her to vote for her for anything. What a nutbag.

In her announcement, she reminded us that Independence Day was a day to reflect on the service that so many in the military have given on behalf of their country. Funny, I thought Veterans Day and Memorial Day were for that and Independence Day was for celebrating the formation of this fine country.

Best Independence Day EvAH for me!! First Billy Mays takes the dirt nap and now she quits? Maybe there is an omnipotent being above. Hallelujah! Testify!

And by the way, that millions of dollars that she's talking about would be 450,000 less if she'd just provide the emails they're looking for. That's how much they've spent trying to recover them because SHE won't provide them. It'll be sweet if we find out real soon that there is some dirty laundry behind all this. Who knows? I'll be smiling all weekend.

McCain called her nutty. OMG. Too funny.

Hockey coverage is next. Not until August but it is next.

UAF? Money Maker. UNO? Not So Much.

I have a belief/assumption that there are three teams in the WCHA who put extra butts in home team arenas. Minnesota, Wisconsin and UND have active followers living in every other WCHA city. So ... when those three show up, you'll see a fair number more folks in your barn than you did when Mankato visited last weekend. Let's test that belief by comparing the average attendance for non-premier opponents to the average attendance for premier opponents:

UAA
Big Three Average: 3613
Everyone Else Average: 3240

Colorado College
Big Three Average: 7284
Everyone Else Average: 6563

University of Denver
Big Three Average: 6019
Everyone Else Average: 5450

Michigan Tech University
Big Three Average: 2890
Everyone Else Average: 2499

Minnesota State University, Mankato
Big Three Average: 4989
Everyone Else Average: 4512

University of Minnesota Duluth
Big Three Average: 4955
Everyone Else Average: 4652

Saint Cloud State University
Big Three Average: 6097
Everyone Else Average: 6006

I used the last three home series where Minnesota, North Dakota or Wisconsin was the opponent to calculate the "Big Three Average". The "Everybody Else Average" was calculated using the remaining home conference games only. It's not scientific in the least. If someone else wants to use figures for the last "x" number of years versus to make it statistically valid then feel free. I have doubts it would make a big difference ... nevertheless the disclaimer stands.

St. Cloud looks to be an exception to the rule. They pretty much pack em in for anyone that comes to town. Good on them! But for the rest there is from a low of about 300 to a high of over 700 per game less. Note that CC and DU show the biggest variance. At CC this means additional revenue of $21,500 during a weekend when either Wisconsin, Minnesota or North Dakato play. Under the unbalanced schedule, CC gets 2 of those 3 opponents in their rink every year. This is all together less significant that I originally thought. I'd estimate that any likely configuration of 12 teams would not create much more than about $10,000 less per year on average for CC or DU since essentially those losses are spread out during the time it takes to "balance" the schedule. Such a loss wouldn't be a vote maker. I was wrong about that.

I still believe the bottom line is the primary vote maker in this situation. So let's look at the split from the Final Five pie first. Those revenues are spread between 10 teams today. In the future they'll be spread between 12 teams. I don't have the figures unfortunately. so I'll just plug in an arbitrary number that is easy to divide in my head. So for example; if we assume that it's a million dollars. A ten team split obviously equals $100K each; a 12 team split equals $8333.33.

So based on the example of a million dollars ... a twelve team league (regardless of the choice between UAF and UNO) means a semi-significant loss of around $20,000 dollars a year on average for each program. Obviously, that number is different depending on the exact amount of the Final Five revenue share. Again, that loss is there regardless of which 12th team is included.

The next thing to consider is any potential revenue increases that would offset those losses. Playing a hockey game against the host team in Alaska provides an exemption for the visiting team against their maximum limit of 34 regular season games. This means that such visiting teams can host an additional home game. As it stands, 7 WCHA teams each season receive 2 exemptions each year. With UAF in the league all the other WCHA teams would be able to receive the 2 exemptions each year. Let's see what an exemption is worth at each school based using $15 dollars per ticket. Note here; the Alaska schools are locked into the 34 game limit.

Colorado College ----- 7343 seats times 15 dollars = $110,145
Denver University ----- 6026 seats times 15 dollars = $90,390
Michigan Tech ----- 4200 seats times 15 dollars = $63,000
Minnesota ----- 9700 seats times 15 dollars = $145,500
Minnesota St. ----- 4832 seats times 15 dollars = $72,480
Minnesota-Duluth ----- 5233 seats times 15 dollars = $78,495
North Dakota ----- 11500 seats times 15 dollars = $172,500
St. Cloud ----- 5763 seats times 15 dollars = $86,445
Wisconsin ----- 15237 seats times 15 dollars = $228,555

Those numbers represent the potential revenue from one additional home game. I have to apologize for not being 100 percent sure here but in my reading of the NCAA bylaws pertaining to exempted contests, I did not find any mention of any limits on Alaska exemptions per year. That helps explain why WCHA schools were regular attendees at UAA's tournament in years when they weren't otherwise scheduled to come up here. In any case, those are significant revenue additions to most of the WCHA schools. With UAA and UAF in the league the other member schools would maximize the number of additional home games they could schedule. I'm thinking 2 extra home games every year is something that both fans and administrations at every school would get behind. A minimum of 2 exemptions EVERY year.

Now the travel costs. UAF is definitely more expensive for 9 out of 10 WCHA teams than UNO. No point in calculating miles and all that eh? Fairbanks is way farther than Omaha ... I'll stipulate that. But there is an existing offset that could easily be adapted as necessary. Currently, UAF subsidizes the travel for it's CCHA opponents with 25 airline tickets. UAA apparently still provides 12 tickets for it's WCHA opponents. I have no reason to believe that UAF wouldn't happily provide the same 25 tickets to WCHA opponents. In fact, UAF's inclusion in the WCHA is actually so beneficial to the UAA program that I'd imagine UAA would happily buy everyone that comes to Anchorage 25 tickets as well. Ok so ... in that scenario travel to Alaska probably costs about the same as travel to Omaha.

Time to travel? DU and CC would face an 8+ hour bus ride to Omaha. Flying time from Denver to Fairbanks? Less than 7 hours. If DU and CC wanted to fly to Omaha; will UNO pay for 25 of their tickets? Similar story for the Gophers and Bucky. 380/370 miles to Omaha. 6 hours on a bus? Or 7 hours in an airplane? Duluth? 529 miles. 8+ hours on a bus for them. It seems to be almost a push. Though it is easier to get on and off a bus with your gear than it is with all the airport rig-a-ma-roll that you have to go through. Travel to either place certainly has it's downside. But no doubt, for a majority of WCHA schools UNO is objectively a more convenient destination. I could argue otherwise subjectively ... but I won't.

So if it's a choice between adding a school that will increase your bottom line significantly or adding a school that is a little easier to get to ... UAF is clearly the better choice. The relative inconvenience is not significant compared to the potential revenue. $200,000+ (or so) year to offset the $25,000 (or so) loss of going to 12 teams? I think the expansion decision at each WCHA institution would take that number into account. One choice is expand and lose 25K a year or expand and make 180K+ a year ... come on. It's got to be a "slam dunk" eh, Ciskie? That pays for 2 assistant coaches. Or a skating treadmill. Or an upgraded weight room. Or on and on and on ...

Someone please speak up if I'm missing some revenue that Bemidji or UNO brings with them as members.

The question in my mind today is whether UAF is desirous of and/or receiving real consideration from the WCHA. Bruce McLeod certainly seems to want UAF to wait in the wings pending UNO's decision. If UAF is interested then they should certainly not stand by while UNO decides whether or not it will apply.

UA Nanooks Considering WCHA Move

Thanks to this posting on USCHO by 'Wondering' and 'AKJD' from Fairbanks, I learned today that it appears UAF is indeed giving due consideration to changing it's conference affliation from the CCHA to the WCHA.  In a University forum called "Grapevine", Athletic Director Forrest Karr acknowledged the situation.  

The question posed on May 22nd was;

Rumors have circulated around the Internet, as well as the UAF community, that the Alaska Nanooks hockey team may be moving from the CCHA to the WCHA. Is this true?

Forrest Karr answered the query;

We are working with both conferences to explore affiliation with the WCHA for a number of reasons including the potential to increase revenue, reduce team travel costs, reduce team travel subsidies and the opportunity to play four league games each year against our natural in-state rival.

Chancellor Rogers will be briefed on May 27. If he decides to move forward, students, faculty, staff and the greater Fairbanks community will all be invited to open forums for discussion and input.

This is certainly interesting and adds a dimension to the WCHA's exploration of expanding.  I'm sure wondering what Bruce McLeod thought when he got that phone call.  As I've been saying there are some advantages that UAF brings to the table as a conference member that UNO simply cannot match.  UNO doesn't necessarily even practice on the same rink from day to day. They're mired in a contract with the 15,000 seat Qwest Center that doesn't serve the school particularly well.  Their athletic department is still recovering from the kerfuffle of the only coach they've ever had resigning and the hiring of a somewhat controversial A.D. that admits he knows NOTHING about college hockey.

UAF brings the possibility of maximizing the number of exempt games that WCHA opponents could use to schedule additional home games.  There is a limit on the number of exempted games a school can possess but currently WCHA teams don't reach that.  UAF brings a longstanding rivalry with WCHA member UAA.  Schools visiting Alaska would have the opportunity to schedule back-to-back series and minimize the travel expense.  It's the internet age so student-athletes shouldn't suffer too much from any missed classes on a 10 day road trip. UAA and UAF have managed to make travel and school work out so I'd assume it isn't beyond the capability of other WCHA schools to figure out.  

And finally, UAF is in the WEST ... they belong with UAA in the Western Collegiate Hockey Association as opposed to the CENTRAL Collegiate Hockey Association.  UNO is a natural for the CCHA.  That's why the WCHA didn't show any interest when they applied years and years ago. 

I'd hope Steve Cobb is on the phone early and often these days selling this idea to his WCHA peers.  Don't let anyone use the old argument about how horrible it would be to make two Alaska road trips every year Dr. Cobb.  Tell them your school makes at minimum 7 such trips a year.  Don't be afraid to use the word "fairness" eh?

UAF Nanooks to the WCHA

The University of Alaska Nanook hockey team should immediately begin considering moving to the WCHA. An opening for a 12th team in the WCHA is available because the CHA has folded and existing college hockey conferences are making attempts to save faltering programs. Two schools remain without a conference; Alabama-Huntsville and Bemidji St. Bemidji State is the only school to have applied during the WCHA's filing period. They presented their case at the recent NCAA meetings in Florida.

WCHA commish Bruce McLeod made it clear that the WCHA considers a 12 team league the goal of expansion. Much talk had been focused on Northern Michigan or University of Nebraska Omaha as the 12th team. Northern has officially (for the 2nd time) said they are not interested. UNO just hired a new Athletic Director within the past few days.

I believe the WCHA could find a UAF bid very acceptable. But first, would it be a good move for UAF? There are a few things to look at but overall I can't see much if/any negative. The WCHA has plenty of elite opponents to help fill the Carlson. Over the past decade the WCHA has proven to be slightly superior in non-conference action versus the CCHA. Most observers give the nod to the WCHA as "the premier" conference in college hockey.

By joining the WCHA UAF would instantly gain a 4 game per year series with UAA and the rivalry could fully blossom again. UAF's tournament would continue to be a going enterprise along with it's participation in UAA's tourny. Trips to WCHA cities would cost about the same per season as trips UAF takes to CCHA cities; perhaps a little less but not significantly so.

Why would the WCHA like it? Three words "The Alaska Exemption". Currently, everyone in the WCHA (except Mankato) comes to UAA only every other year. Mankato is the one WCHA team that gets the financial benefit of having the extra home games every year. Everyone else only gets it once every two years.

In some cases, we're talking about hundreds of thousands of extra dollars in the coffers of WCHA teams. UND, Minnesota and Wisconsin in particular would see the biggest $$$. But having those exempted games gives St. Cloud, Duluth, CC, DU and MTU the ability to host their own tournament every year or perhaps do something else creative with their schedule.

With UAF in the WCHA along with UAA, every team in the league would be able to travel to Alaska every year. Putting money into someone's pocket is the quickest way to get their vote. UAF to the WCHA puts money into everyone's pocket. Why wouldn't the WCHA like it? UAF has the sort of stability that the WCHA purports to be necessary for inclusion. They have a long tradition and excellent community support.

Why would the CCHA like it? They wouldn't. Quite frankly, it would be a bit of a blow. But it would be a bit of a blow no matter who they lose. If UNO goes, it's not best for the CCHA. If UAF goes, it's not a good thing either. But it really looks like if Huntsville is to find a home, the only place that makes sense for them is the CCHA. It's not a bad regional fit.

UAF should jump into the pond before the new AD at UNO figures out exactly how warm the water is. They currently play to 6,000 folks in a mostly empty 18,000 seat arena. Do you think that place would be mostly empty when Minnesota, UND or Wisconsin show up? Nope. Again, UAF should immediately make an overture to the WCHA. They have more to offer than either Bemidji or UNO. But I think Bemidji's membership in a 12 team scenario is all but given. If UAF doesn't move then they risk the future growth of their hockey program. If UNO jumps in before UAF, they could likely grow into a premier program. The fact that UNO folks don't know that today is to UAF's benefit. Get on it Forrest.