Guest Post: Preseason Analytics by Andrew Belanger

Editors Note: Submitted for your approval.  One "guest post" from "superfan" Andrew Belanger.  I've done my best to preserve his format and I think I've mostly got it right.  There is a single issue with a goalie column that I wasn't able to correct so we'll live with it bleeding over.  Lots of information here. Thanks Andrew for what looks like a massive amount of time it took to create this. If anyone has questions or comments I'm sure he'll gladly answer.

AKSWF here, first and foremost let me thank D for letting me guest write something. I know I’m not the only Seawolf fanatic glad to have you back. Now I feel like I stress this too much, but we just had our first winning season since 92-93 (our original coach and his team accomplished this, the 21 year dry spell is over)! We have gone through five coaches in our brief history and only Brush Christiansen and Matt Thomas have guided us to a plus .500 campaign. With the popularity fantasy sports has had, and continues to have I thought it’d bee nice to have some of that, but Seawolf style!

So what I did was come up with a model to predict the games played, goals, assists, points (and points per game) for our skaters, and then similar numbers for our goalies. This is by no means a scientific prediction, but over the years I hope to refine it and help factor in a player’s junior numbers as well.

Now for the freshman I had to just “guess” what kind of numbers they will get this year. I factored in how well of the team they were in, how many games they played, their respective league, etc. For sophomores I did factor in their junior numbers, but also their last season numbers. Juniors and seniors strictly their UAA numbers. Goalies were especially hard. Only one of them has played for UAA in a game that has counted, and even so Matyas only played in seven games (though he did look very solid all around in those appearances). Anyways here we go!

Goalies first:

	Year	GP	Min.	GA	GAA	Saves	Save Per.	W	L	T	Shutouts
Michael Matyas	13-14	7	365	20	3.288	143	0.8773	2	2	1	0
	14`15	20	1120	58	3.107	520	0.8997	10	8	2	1
	total	27	1485	78	3.152	663	0.8947	12	10	3	1
Olivier Mantha	14`15	12	786	42	3.206	340	0.8901	6	5	1	0
Jared D'Amico	14`15	6	352	20	3.409	165	0.8919	2	2	2	0

Matyas played solidly for us last year, and naturally since he has seniority and has played in the WCHA I believe he will get the majority of the starts. His numbers weren’t great last year, so I see improvements in his GAA, and save percentage but nothing too shocking. As for the freshman I see them challenging for the starts every weekend. I gave the edge to Mantha because he came from the better league. Mantha wasn’t the starter, but he put up great numbers like D’Amico (who was the starter last season).

*Green highlights indicate actual stats; no green indicates projected season/career totals.

Defense now:

D	Year	GP	G	A	Pts.	Points per game
Derek Docken	11`12	31	1	10	11	0.355
	12`13	36	3	3	6	0.167
	13`14	38	1	2	3	0.079
	14`15	36	3	9	13	0.356
	total	141	8	24	33	0.232

Austin Coldwell	11`12	33	2	12	14	0.424
	12`13	27	2	3	5	0.185
	13`14	38	6	13	19	0.500
	14`15	34	7	20	27	0.790
	total	132	17	48	65	0.490

Docken appears just stats wise to bee taking more and more leadership on the ice, his production has decreased immensely. But hey, if he is a leader on the ice I’m fine with it. His lowest point total for a season has came with our first winning season in 21 years.

Coldwell had a down year during his sophomore season (injury to his shoulder I believe) but bounced back his junior year with one more point than his freshmen campaign. It didn’t matter if I took out or kept his 12`13 season, he still got projected to have around 6-7 goals, with 19-20 assists.

Austin Sevalrud	12`13	33	0	2	2	0.061
	13`14	36	1	3	4	0.111
	14`15	35	1	4	5	0.135
	total	104	2	9	11	0.103

Ben Matthews	12`13	9	0	0	0	0.000
	13`14	11	3	1	4	0.364
	14`15	10	3	1	3	0.333
	total	30	6	2	7	0.245

Blake Leask	12`13	34	2	9	11	0.324
	13`14	34	1	7	8	0.235
	14`15	34	2	12	14	0.410
	total	102	5	28	33	0.323

Chris Williams	12`13	31	0	2	2	0.065
	13`14	34	0	4	4	0.118
	14`15	33	0	5	5	0.143
	total	98	0	11	11	0.109

At first glance of this roster, I didn’t expect us to have four junior defensemen. This coupled with two senior defensemen makes me second guess my high estimated goals against. We have a wealth of experience and leadership in our D corp. If this is utilized correctly and the boys play like expected, we could go far into the playoffs. 

While our junior defensemen numbers don’t jump out at you, they appear to be steady and that’s what you need from your D. I expect Ben Matthews to yet again play more games. My man crush on Chris Williams still remains, dude has the pieces to play in the show, he just needs to get them aligned. No offense to the other guys of course, Chris’ game seems to readily translate into the NHL nicer.

Chase Van Allen	13`14	30	0	8	8	0.267
	14`15	34	2	9	11	0.324
	total	64	2	17	19	0.297

Tanner Johnson

14`15

25

1

4

5

0.200

Jarrett Brown

14`15

15

1

2

3

0.200

Chase Van Allen is a star waiting to be born; he is one of the guys I feel is ready to break out this season. It will be a real shame if Tanner Johnson has to medically redshirt, best wishes go out to him and his family. Jarrett Brown looked very good the only time I’ve seen him play, to bee fair it was against Western Ontario.

Now time for our forwards:

F	Year	GP	G	A	Pts.	Points per game
Brett Cameron	10`11	36	4	8	12	0.333
	11`12	31	5	8	13	0.419
	13`14	34	10	13	23	0.676
	14`15	34	13	20	33	0.970
	total	135	32	49	81	0.600

Kory Roy	11`12	22	0	2	2	0.091
	12`13	34	0	7	7	0.206
	13`14	17	3	0	3	0.176
	14`15	23	2	5	8	0.335
	total	96	5	14	20	0.205

Scott Allen	11`12	28	3	6	9	0.321
	12`13	36	12	7	19	0.528
	13`14	33	17	14	31	0.939
	14`15	32	22	19	40	1.259
	total	129	54	46	99	0.770

Brett Cameron broke out last season, I predict and my model predicts he will break out again. He has developed quite nicely since coming to UAA, and seeing him getting aggressive and leading on the ice against Western Ontario leads me to believe he will easily get 30 points this season. Kory Roy has some odd statistics eh? I expect him to fill roles and get even more points his senior season. Allen, oh Allen. Dude is beast. His points have increased exponentially since coming to UAA, I also easily see him getting 30 points, and then ten more.

Hayden Trupp	12`13	35	2	4	6	0.171
	13`14	27	0	8	8	0.296
	14`15	30	1	9	11	0.354
	total	92	3	21	25	0.268

Blake Tatchell	12`13	36	9	16	25	0.694
	13`14	38	7	25	32	0.842
	14`15	37	12	32	43	1.168
	total	111	28	73	100	0.903

During my first edit I forgot Tatchell! Our opponents will have a tough time of that. Blake has the closest chance to getting 100 points of anybody in the last decade. Scott Allen needs 41 points to do that his senior year, Blake can get 100 with 43 points this season. While those are some lofty, big goals these two guys can do it. Hayden is sort of like Kory Roy, a role player and energy guy. He is going to break out either this season, or during his senior campaign, mark my words.

Dylan Hubbs	13`14	35	4	6	10	0.286
	14`15	36	6	10	16	0.444
	total	71	10	16	26	0.366

Tanner Duysk	13`14	28	2	2	4	0.143
	14`15	36	6	10	16	0.444
	total	64	8	12	20	0.313

Brad Duwe	13`14	28	7	1	8	0.286
	14`15	34	6	8	14	0.412
	total	62	13	9	22	0.355

Hudson Friesen	13`14	29	3	4	7	0.241
	14`15	38	6	11	17	0.447
	total	67	9	15	24	0.358

Zack Rassell	13`14	34	3	4	7	0.206
	14`15	38	5	7	12	0.316
	total	72	8	11	19	0.264

What we don’t have in terms of junior forwards, we definitely make up for it in sophomore forwards. This squad of guys is going to be the deciding factor of how well we are going to do. Yes, the D corp is shaping up to bee pretty nice this season but if two guys breakout and get 20-25 points this season….man o man. My favorites to do this are Hubbs and Duwe. Friesen seems a year away, but I’ve been wrong before.

Austin Azurdia

14`15

35

7

10

17

0.486

Anthony Conti

14`15

20

2

4

6

0.300

Matt Anholt

14`15

30

4

7

11

0.367

Tad Kozun

14`15

38

6

4

10

0.263

Conor Wright

14`15

22

1

3

4

0.182

All of our freshmen forwards look like future studs, though Azurdia as of right now appears to bee more polished off. Tad Kozun put up good numbers in the SJHL, if he works hard I could see him putting up Blake Tatchell numbers. Conor Wright is a sophomore as he redshirted last season, it will bee fun to see what he can bring to rink.

It will bee very interesting at the end of the year to see how close my initial model will bee. With my model I have predicted a season record of 18-15-5, which is eerily similar to last season’s record 18-16-4. I see us having no trouble doing this; our Seawolves have everything to prove last year was not a fluke.

*I had to put this guest write-up on the back burner after midterms, it was finished before the first game, but D and I decided this would end up just getting buried under all his other posts this weekend, fyi.