Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Guest Post: Preseason Analytics by Andrew Belanger

Editors Note: Submitted for your approval.  One "guest post" from "superfan" Andrew Belanger.  I've done my best to preserve his format and I think I've mostly got it right.  There is a single issue with a goalie column that I wasn't able to correct so we'll live with it bleeding over.  Lots of information here. Thanks Andrew for what looks like a massive amount of time it took to create this. If anyone has questions or comments I'm sure he'll gladly answer.

AKSWF here, first and foremost let me thank D for letting me guest write something. I know I’m not the only Seawolf fanatic glad to have you back. Now I feel like I stress this too much, but we just had our first winning season since 92-93 (our original coach and his team accomplished this, the 21 year dry spell is over)! We have gone through five coaches in our brief history and only Brush Christiansen and Matt Thomas have guided us to a plus .500 campaign. With the popularity fantasy sports has had, and continues to have I thought it’d bee nice to have some of that, but Seawolf style!

So what I did was come up with a model to predict the games played, goals, assists, points (and points per game) for our skaters, and then similar numbers for our goalies. This is by no means a scientific prediction, but over the years I hope to refine it and help factor in a player’s junior numbers as well.

Now for the freshman I had to just “guess” what kind of numbers they will get this year. I factored in how well of the team they were in, how many games they played, their respective league, etc. For sophomores I did factor in their junior numbers, but also their last season numbers. Juniors and seniors strictly their UAA numbers. Goalies were especially hard. Only one of them has played for UAA in a game that has counted, and even so Matyas only played in seven games (though he did look very solid all around in those appearances). Anyways here we go!


Goalies first:
Year
GP
Min.
GA
GAA
Saves
Save Per.
W
L
T
Shutouts
Michael Matyas
13-14
7
365
20
3.288
143
0.8773
2
2
1
0
14`15
20
1120
58
3.107
520
0.8997
10
8
2
1
total
27
1485
78
3.152
663
0.8947
12
10
3
1
Olivier Mantha
14`15
12
786
42
3.206
340
0.8901
6
5
1
0
Jared D'Amico
14`15
6
352
20
3.409
165
0.8919
2
2
2
0

Matyas played solidly for us last year, and naturally since he has seniority and has played in the WCHA I believe he will get the majority of the starts. His numbers weren’t great last year, so I see improvements in his GAA, and save percentage but nothing too shocking. As for the freshman I see them challenging for the starts every weekend. I gave the edge to Mantha because he came from the better league. Mantha wasn’t the starter, but he put up great numbers like D’Amico (who was the starter last season).
*Green highlights indicate actual stats; no green indicates projected season/career totals.

Defense now:

D
Year
GP
G
A
Pts.
Points per game
Derek Docken
11`12
31
1
10
11
0.355
12`13
36
3
3
6
0.167
13`14
38
1
2
3
0.079
14`15
36
3
9
13
0.356
total
141
8
24
33
0.232

Austin Coldwell
11`12
33
2
12
14
0.424
12`13
27
2
3
5
0.185
13`14
38
6
13
19
0.500
14`15
34
7
20
27
0.790
total
132
17
48
65
0.490







Docken appears just stats wise to bee taking more and more leadership on the ice, his production has decreased immensely. But hey, if he is a leader on the ice I’m fine with it. His lowest point total for a season has came with our first winning season in 21 years.

Coldwell had a down year during his sophomore season (injury to his shoulder I believe) but bounced back his junior year with one more point than his freshmen campaign. It didn’t matter if I took out or kept his 12`13 season, he still got projected to have around 6-7 goals, with 19-20 assists.

Austin Sevalrud
12`13
33
0
2
2
0.061
13`14
36
1
3
4
0.111
14`15
35
1
4
5
0.135
total
104
2
9
11
0.103

Ben Matthews
12`13
9
0
0
0
0.000
13`14
11
3
1
4
0.364
14`15
10
3
1
3
0.333
total
30
6
2
7
0.245

Blake Leask
12`13
34
2
9
11
0.324
13`14
34
1
7
8
0.235
14`15
34
2
12
14
0.410
total
102
5
28
33
0.323

Chris Williams
12`13
31
0
2
2
0.065
13`14
34
0
4
4
0.118
14`15
33
0
5
5
0.143
total
98
0
11
11
0.109

At first glance of this roster, I didn’t expect us to have four junior defensemen. This coupled with two senior defensemen makes me second guess my high estimated goals against. We have a wealth of experience and leadership in our D corp. If this is utilized correctly and the boys play like expected, we could go far into the playoffs. 

While our junior defensemen numbers don’t jump out at you, they appear to be steady and that’s what you need from your D. I expect Ben Matthews to yet again play more games. My man crush on Chris Williams still remains, dude has the pieces to play in the show, he just needs to get them aligned. No offense to the other guys of course, Chris’ game seems to readily translate into the NHL nicer.

Chase Van Allen
13`14
30
0
8
8
0.267
14`15
34
2
9
11
0.324
total
64
2
17
19
0.297

Tanner Johnson
14`15
25
1
4
5
0.200

Jarrett Brown
14`15
15
1
2
3
0.200

Chase Van Allen is a star waiting to be born; he is one of the guys I feel is ready to break out this season. It will be a real shame if Tanner Johnson has to medically redshirt, best wishes go out to him and his family. Jarrett Brown looked very good the only time I’ve seen him play, to bee fair it was against Western Ontario.

Now time for our forwards:

F
Year
GP
G
A
Pts.
Points per game
Brett Cameron
10`11
36
4
8
12
0.333
11`12
31
5
8
13
0.419
13`14
34
10
13
23
0.676
14`15
34
13
20
33
0.970
total
135
32
49
81
0.600

Kory Roy
11`12
22
0
2
2
0.091
12`13
34
0
7
7
0.206
13`14
17
3
0
3
0.176
14`15
23
2
5
8
0.335
total
96
5
14
20
0.205

Scott Allen
11`12
28
3
6
9
0.321
12`13
36
12
7
19
0.528
13`14
33
17
14
31
0.939
14`15
32
22
19
40
1.259
total
129
54
46
99
0.770
Brett Cameron broke out last season, I predict and my model predicts he will break out again. He has developed quite nicely since coming to UAA, and seeing him getting aggressive and leading on the ice against Western Ontario leads me to believe he will easily get 30 points this season. Kory Roy has some odd statistics eh? I expect him to fill roles and get even more points his senior season. Allen, oh Allen. Dude is beast. His points have increased exponentially since coming to UAA, I also easily see him getting 30 points, and then ten more.

Hayden Trupp
12`13
35
2
4
6
0.171
13`14
27
0
8
8
0.296
14`15
30
1
9
11
0.354
total
92
3
21
25
0.268

Blake Tatchell
12`13
36
9
16
25
0.694
13`14
38
7
25
32
0.842
14`15
37
12
32
43
1.168
total
111
28
73
100
0.903

During my first edit I forgot Tatchell! Our opponents will have a tough time of that. Blake has the closest chance to getting 100 points of anybody in the last decade. Scott Allen needs 41 points to do that his senior year, Blake can get 100 with 43 points this season. While those are some lofty, big goals these two guys can do it. Hayden is sort of like Kory Roy, a role player and energy guy. He is going to break out either this season, or during his senior campaign, mark my words.

Dylan Hubbs
13`14
35
4
6
10
0.286
14`15
36
6
10
16
0.444
total
71
10
16
26
0.366

Tanner Duysk
13`14
28
2
2
4
0.143
14`15
36
6
10
16
0.444
total
64
8
12
20
0.313

Brad Duwe
13`14
28
7
1
8
0.286
14`15
34
6
8
14
0.412
total
62
13
9
22
0.355

Hudson Friesen
13`14
29
3
4
7
0.241
14`15
38
6
11
17
0.447
total
67
9
15
24
0.358

Zack Rassell
13`14
34
3
4
7
0.206
14`15
38
5
7
12
0.316
total
72
8
11
19
0.264

What we don’t have in terms of junior forwards, we definitely make up for it in sophomore forwards. This squad of guys is going to be the deciding factor of how well we are going to do. Yes, the D corp is shaping up to bee pretty nice this season but if two guys breakout and get 20-25 points this season….man o man. My favorites to do this are Hubbs and Duwe. Friesen seems a year away, but I’ve been wrong before.

Austin Azurdia
14`15
35
7
10
17
0.486

Anthony Conti
14`15
20
2
4
6
0.300

Matt Anholt
14`15
30
4
7
11
0.367

Tad Kozun
14`15
38
6
4
10
0.263

Conor Wright
14`15
22
1
3
4
0.182

All of our freshmen forwards look like future studs, though Azurdia as of right now appears to bee more polished off. Tad Kozun put up good numbers in the SJHL, if he works hard I could see him putting up Blake Tatchell numbers. Conor Wright is a sophomore as he redshirted last season, it will bee fun to see what he can bring to rink.

It will bee very interesting at the end of the year to see how close my initial model will bee. With my model I have predicted a season record of 18-15-5, which is eerily similar to last season’s record 18-16-4. I see us having no trouble doing this; our Seawolves have everything to prove last year was not a fluke.

*I had to put this guest write-up on the back burner after midterms, it was finished before the first game, but D and I decided this would end up just getting buried under all his other posts this weekend, fyi.

5 comments:

Donald Dunlop said...

Dear Readers,
As always this blog is a welcome place for guest posts. If you have something you'd like to share just contact me and we'll work out getting it posted. This sort of participation is one thing that can separate this blog from other media. I look forward to seeing more submissions from you guys.

Thanks Andrew for your work and the enjoyable submission.

A Seawolves Fanatic said...

Superfan, ooh shucks! Jk, it is quite freaky to see people comments from the Kendall Classic that mirror my statements from this post. I hope everybody can read it well, if not let me know and I will clarify. I like to bee my biggest critic and I notice some formatting issues that escaped me, that will not happen again!

A Seawolves Fanatic said...

Next season, I will clean up the goalie stats, I didn't realize it was so long.

A Seawolves Fanatic said...

In other news: Quinn Sproule to the Aces!

From the Aces email:

" "Quinn brings a terrific set of elements that we're confident will fit our team identity," said Aces head coach Rob Murray. "We're excited about his skating ability and how his development progressed at UAA under current head coach Matt Thomas. It's an acquisition that makes sense and addresses our need for depth on the blueline."

Sproule, 24, skated in 138 career games for the University of Alaska-Anchorage (NCAA) in the last four seasons, collecting 25 points (5g-20a) and 89 penalty minutes. His career-high totals came as a 2011-12 sophomore when he earned 10 points (3g-7a) and seven assists, standing as the only Seawolf to suit up in all 36 games.

The Hussar, Alberta native was one of six players in the program last season to dress in all 38 games and he earned four assists while helping guide UAA to their third WCHA Final Five appearance in program history, and the second in his career.

Sproule originally agreed to terms with the Steelheads on July 3, 2014. "

Suze said...

Found a great article on some of UAA's 2014 and 2015 recruits:
http://overtheboards.net/recruiting-preview-wcha-uaa-uah/

Mason Mitchell is off to a great start, he has 6 goals and 1 assist in 9 games. He also has 53 penalty minutes, and he's a forward. Ouch!

Jake Larson is also off to a hot start scoring 6 goals and getting 3 assists in 9 games.

Post a Comment